Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers claimed he is ahead by almost seven percent among ballots returned so far, according to The Hill, in its report on the claim published October 31, 2026. The outlet's headline gives the figure as 7 percent and attributes the claim to Rogers's own models, quoting him as saying "by our models."

According to The Hill, Rogers made the remark during an appearance on a program that the outlet's summary does not fully identify. He said he is about seven percent ahead among voters he believes are voting for him and returning their ballots.

The Hill reported that the claim runs contrary to recent polls, which lean in favor of Rogers's Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed. The summary does not name the polls, their sponsors, or the dates on which they were conducted.

According to The Hill, the margin is described in more than one form. The headline gives 7 percent, the article text describes an almost seven percent lead on early-returned ballots, and Rogers's remark refers to about seven percent. The outlet's material does not explain whether the difference reflects rounding or another measure.

The Hill's summary does not include a response from El-Sayed's campaign to Rogers's claim, nor does it state how many early ballots have been returned in Michigan. Those details are not reported in the summary, so the figures cannot be independently confirmed from this account.

As reported by The Hill, the figures come from Rogers himself, and the outlet's account is the sole source for these details.

Sources: The Hill: Mike Rogers claims he’s ahead by 7 percent on ballots returned so far ‘by our models’.